Probability of a Payout If You Have a Royal Panda ID

The Royal Panda Ids best illustration of this is a “draw no bet” bet on a football game. In a match between Arsenal and Chelsea, a “draw no bet” wager on Arsenal would pay out if Arsenal won, but return the stake if Chelsea prevailed.

Estimate Result I's Return if a Refund is Possible.

Probability of Outcome I Times Odds of Outcome I Plus Draw Probability Times 1.00 minus 1

A payout with odds of $1.00 is the same as a refund, so the dollar amount mentioned is merely for demonstration purposes. (Odds on outcome I) * (probability of outcome I) + (probability of draw) – 1 is another way to express the solution.

Let's say your best guesses for the probabilities of each outcome in a head-to-head matchup are as follows.

Arsenal win – 2.00 (40%)
Draw – 3.40 (20%)
Chelsea win – 3.80 (40%)

Let's assume the odds for a 'draw no bet' are now:

Chelsea – 2.75 vs. Arsenal – 1.40